Thursday, December 11, 2014

Top 5 Tips for Successful Stock Trading

Tom Carlson’s Blog Post


1. Never place market orders (ones with no specific buy/sell price) before the opening of the trading day


At the opening bell some unforeseeable things have been known to happen. You may find yourself paying much more than you intended on the buy side, or you may receive much less than you expected in terms of the sell side. This is always a risk with a market order, but it is to be taken very serious at the opening. This tends to be the case in part due to traders reacting to last night’s or the morning’s recent news. If you feel that you should trade at the opening, guard against too much loss with a limit order.


2. The best time to trade is usually in the afternoon, from about 1-2:30 p.m. EST


This is that special time of day when everyone from the east to the west coast is at work and has caught up on the daily news. Market-shaking government statistics are just about always released in the morning along with most corporate earnings reports.


3. Always check the “bid size” and the “ask size” for any exchange-listed stock before submitting a buy or sell order


A reliable real-time quote system will tell you not only the last price of a stock, but also the bid price, the ask price as well as the number of shares being bid for or offered at those prices.


When the bid size is larger than the ask size, it’s a sign of underlying demand for the stock, so it would not be wise to hold out much longer if you were planning to buy. On the other hand, a large position on the ask side suggests there are a lot of sellers eager to get out. Don’t waver if you were intending to sell.


If the bid and ask sizes are almost equal, it is an interesting situation for entering a limit order exactly halfway between the bid price and the ask price. Most likely, your order will be executed in the middle.


4. The best time of the month to buy stocks is around the 18th-22nd


Between the 18th and the 22nd of every month cash flows into the market that tends to be lower is prices. As a side note, the best time to sell stocks is during the first two and last two days of the each month. September and October are also heavy months to buy as the market has a seasonality to it where it tends to dip quite low in the two months. Set your calendar to do most of your selling in the month of April and early on in May.


5. Choose stocks to buy that are trading above $10 a share


Reason #1 Stocks below $10 are usually quoted at larger % spreads between bid and ask, so you will need a bigger price increase to break even


Reason #2 Companies with low-priced stocks are more prone to financial trouble, ie. bankruptcy.


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Oil Prices Drag Down Wall Street

Tom Carlson’s Latest Blog Post


tom-carlson-oil


Not only did oil prices plunged yesterday but they also took the stock market with them. The three main market indexes fell 1.5% or more.


The spark for the latest sell-off in oil was a report by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries that foresaw the demand for its crude would dip next year to levels not seen in more than 10 years. The United States among other countries has stepped up its own production, thereby diminishing demand for OPEC’s supply.


Oil’s price decline rapidly increased after the Energy Department reported that domestic oil inventories had increased by 1.5 million barrels last week. This was breaking news as analysts had expected a decline.


Crude oil for January delivery fell $2.88, or 4.5%, to settle at $60.94 a barrel in New York. The price of oil has now dropped more than 40% from a peak of $107 in June.


Investors may start to get worried as some producers may be forced out of the highly competitive business. On the other hand lower oil prices are good for consumers and some industries.


Randy Frederick, managing director of trading and derivatives with the Schwab Center for Financial Research is quoted in saying, “The slide in oil has been pretty dramatic.” “There is an overreaction to these lower energy prices, which is what we seem to be seeing right now, where it becomes more panic selling.”


Note the Facts: The Dow Jones industrial average fell 268.05 points(1.5%), to 17,533.15. The Nasdaq composite index fell 82.44 points(1.7%), to 4,684.03.


Stocks have been pushed far down as falling oil prices and concerns about global growth racked the market which closed at record levels on last Friday. The market did rise however that day after the government reported a boost in hiring in November. The jump placed the United States on track for the healthiest year for job creation since 1999.


Investors are speculating the Federal Reserve will signal next week that it is nearing its first rate increase in more than eight years due to the ever-strong American economy. Federal Reserve policy makers are scheduled to convene a two-day meeting on Tuesday.


Rob Eschweiler, global investment specialist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank in Houston says, “The stronger employment data and economic data that we have gotten has only increased people’s confidence that the Fed is going to be raising rates” by the middle of next year.


Exxon Mobil and Chevron were among the biggest losers in the Dow. Exxon Mobil dropped $2.71(3%), to $88.67, while Chevron fell $2.15(2%), to $104.86. The S.&P. 500 energy sector also lost 3.1%.


In other but related news shares of airlines, rose dramatically as oil plunged. Southwest Airlines gained 75 cents, or 1.8%, to $41.48. The stock has gained about 120% this year. United Continental jumped $1.17, or 1.9%, to $63.69.


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